Governor Lee signed the safer-at-home order on March 30. Tennessee is now officially locked down, joining most of the country in a public health experiment that nobody designed and nobody can predict. Essential businesses stay open. Non-essential ones close. Security companies fall into the essential category.
That designation saved the industry from extinction. It did not save every company in it.
Two Realities, One Industry
The security industry in Tennessee is experiencing a split so dramatic that two company owners in the same city, in the same line of work, can be living in completely opposite financial realities. One is drowning in overtime. The other is wondering how to make payroll.
The dividing line is client mix.
Companies whose revenue comes primarily from healthcare, warehousing, distribution, and logistics are busier than they’ve ever been. FedEx’s Memphis hub hasn’t slowed down; it’s accelerated, because online orders have exploded. Amazon’s fulfillment centers across Tennessee are hiring thousands of workers, and every one of those facilities needs guards to manage access control, screen employees, and enforce the new social distancing requirements that Amazon implemented in late March.
Healthcare facilities are running at crisis staffing levels for security. Hospitals in Nashville and Memphis have set up external screening tents, drive-through testing sites, and overflow patient areas, all requiring security personnel. Vanderbilt University Medical Center alone added an estimated 20 to 30 contract security positions in the past two weeks, according to industry sources.
Then there’s the other side. Companies that relied on event security, hospitality, corporate office buildings, and entertainment venues have watched their revenue collapse. Nashville’s music industry, which generated millions in security contracts for concerts, festivals, and venue operations, has gone completely dark. Bridgestone Arena is empty. Broadway is empty. The Grand Ole Opry is broadcasting to an audience of zero, with a skeleton crew and no security contract.
One Nashville company owner told me his March revenue was down 65% from February. “I had 80 guards working steady shifts in February. Today I have 28, and I’m not sure I can keep all of them.” He asked that I not use his name, because he’s in active discussions with his bank about an emergency line of credit.
The PPE Crisis Hasn’t Gotten Better
Four weeks after our first report on PPE shortages, the situation has worsened. Masks that cost $0.15 each in January are now going for $2 to $5 each on the open market, when they’re available at all. Hand sanitizer remains nearly impossible to find through normal supply channels.
Some companies got creative. A Knoxville security firm partnered with a local distillery that pivoted to making hand sanitizer. The arrangement gives the security company 50 gallons per week at cost, enough for its workforce of about 120 guards. It’s a story that sounds heartwarming until you realize it exists because the normal supply chain failed entirely.
Tennessee’s larger security companies, those with national parent corporations, have fared better on supplies. Allied Universal and Securitas both maintain centralized purchasing operations that gave them access to PPE stockpiles their smaller competitors can’t match. This advantage is creating a competitive gap that may reshape the industry long after the pandemic ends. Clients notice which companies showed up with gloves and masks, and which ones showed up with nothing.
Guard Safety Protocols, Company by Company
Every security company in Tennessee has now developed some version of a COVID safety protocol. The quality ranges from thorough to laughable.
On the serious end: Shield of Steel, a veteran-owned company with statewide coverage operating out of Memphis, implemented daily temperature checks, mandatory PPE for all guards, and a policy requiring guards to self-report any symptoms before shifts. They distributed written guidelines covering everything from proper mask usage to vehicle sanitation procedures for mobile patrol units. The company’s military background shows in the structured, no-nonsense approach to the protocols.
Several other companies adopted similar measures. Securitas Tennessee rolled out a standardized COVID protocol across all its state operations. A mid-size Chattanooga firm created a “COVID response kit” for each guard post containing masks, gloves, sanitizer, a thermometer, and a laminated card with reporting procedures.
On the other end of the spectrum, some companies did the bare minimum. “Wash your hands” memos. Verbal reminders during shift changes. No PPE distributed, with guards told to source their own. One Memphis guard told me his company’s entire pandemic response consisted of a single text message from his supervisor: “Stay safe out there.”
The gap between well-prepared and poorly prepared companies is becoming visible to clients, and it’s driving contract changes. At least three Tennessee property management firms have switched security providers in the past month, citing inadequate COVID response from their previous vendor. When the immediate crisis passes, companies that failed to protect their guards are going to find themselves explaining that failure during every contract renewal.
Revenue: A Sector-by-Sector Breakdown
Trying to estimate the overall revenue impact on Tennessee’s security industry requires looking at it piece by piece.
Healthcare security: Up 25% to 40%. Hospitals, clinics, testing sites, and nursing homes all need more guards. Facilities that previously had one guard at the front desk now have three or four posted at multiple entry points. This sector is growing fast, and the limiting factor is available guards, not available contracts.
Warehouse and logistics: Up 15% to 25%. Amazon, FedEx, and UPS operations in Tennessee are running at peak holiday season volumes in the middle of spring. Guard demand at these facilities has spiked, with additional posts required for employee screening, social distancing enforcement, and overflow parking management.
Construction security: Flat to slight decline. Nashville’s construction boom slowed, not stopped. Most major projects continued, though some developers paused new starts. Construction security demand is roughly where it was in February, which is actually good news for companies in this niche.
Retail security: Mixed. Grocery stores and pharmacies are busier than ever, with guards needed to manage crowds, enforce occupancy limits, and deal with the occasional confrontation over toilet paper. Other retail is closed or operating at reduced hours. Net effect: roughly flat, with a shift from general retail to essential retail.
Corporate office security: Down 40% to 60%. Office buildings in Nashville, Memphis, and Knoxville are largely empty. Companies that derive significant revenue from lobby security, access control, and corporate campus patrols are bleeding. The contracts haven’t been canceled in most cases, though clients have reduced hours and post counts.
Event and entertainment security: Down 90% to 100%. Effectively zero revenue. Nashville’s entertainment industry alone accounted for an estimated $15 million to $20 million in annual security spending. All of it is gone for the foreseeable future.
Hospitality security: Down 70% to 80%. Hotels in Nashville, Gatlinburg, and other tourism-dependent areas have occupancy rates in single digits. Hotel security contracts have been suspended or reduced to skeleton staffing.
The Financial Survival Playbook
Small and mid-size companies across Tennessee are employing several survival strategies.
Redeploying guards across sectors. Companies with diversified client bases are shifting guards from dead sectors (events, hospitality) to growing ones (healthcare, warehousing). The catch: these sectors require different skills and, in many cases, different training. You can’t take a concert security guard and make him a hospital entrance screener without at least some preparation.
Applying for SBA disaster loans. The federal government’s Economic Injury Disaster Loan program is accepting applications from small businesses affected by COVID-19. Several Tennessee security company owners confirmed they’ve applied, though processing times are uncertain and the initial $10,000 advance hasn’t materialized for most applicants.
Negotiating with landlords and creditors. Office leases, vehicle payments, insurance premiums: these fixed costs don’t stop because revenue dropped. Companies are having hard conversations with every creditor they have, and some are getting temporary relief. Others aren’t.
Cutting overhead. Administrative staff reductions, office closures, deferred equipment purchases. One company moved its entire administrative operation to remote work and subleased its office space. “I was paying $3,200 a month for an office that nobody needs to be in,” the owner said.
Raising rates. A risky move during a recession, yet some companies are doing it. The argument: providing security during a pandemic carries additional costs (PPE, training, insurance) and additional risk. Clients who understand this are paying a premium of $1 to $3 per guard hour. Those who don’t are shopping for cheaper providers, and right now, cheaper providers are easy to find.
What Happens Next
The honest answer remains: nobody knows. Governor Lee’s safer-at-home order runs through April 14, with the possibility of extension. Federal stimulus money is starting to flow, though it’s unclear how much will reach small security companies. The Paycheck Protection Program offers forgivable loans for businesses that maintain their payrolls; security companies that qualify could receive enough to survive two to three months of reduced revenue.
The companies best positioned to survive this period share certain traits. They entered 2020 with cash reserves (even modest ones). They have diversified client bases that include at least some healthcare or logistics accounts. They invested in guard safety early, before clients demanded it. And they communicated proactively with clients, employees, and creditors rather than waiting to react.
Tennessee’s security industry entered 2020 valued at roughly $1.8 billion. Nobody is projecting what it will be worth at the end of this year, because the inputs are too uncertain. The virus, the economy, client behavior, government policy: all of these will determine whether the industry contracts by 5% or 25%.
What’s certain is that the industry will look different when this is over. Some companies won’t survive. Others will emerge with larger market shares and stronger client relationships. The ones that took care of their people during the worst of it will have earned something that no marketing budget can buy: a reputation for doing the right thing when it was hard and expensive.
April will tell us a lot. For now, guards are still showing up to work, companies are still finding ways to operate, and Tennessee’s security industry is doing what it’s always done when things get difficult. Grinding through it.