The numbers are in, or at least enough of them to draw conclusions. Memphis Police Department released preliminary 2016 crime data in January, and the picture isn’t encouraging. Violent crime in the city rose approximately 4.6% over 2015 levels, pushing the rate to roughly 1,820 violent incidents per 100,000 residents.
That number needs context. It also needs comparison. And for anyone in the security industry, it needs translation into what it actually means for business in Shelby County.
The Headline Numbers
Memphis recorded an estimated 228 homicides in 2016. That figure is preliminary and may shift slightly as MPD finalizes year-end reporting, but it is a meaningful increase over the 196 counted in 2015. The city hasn’t seen homicide numbers this high since the early 2000s.
Aggravated assaults, the largest category of violent crime in Memphis, rose to approximately 8,200 reported incidents. Robbery held relatively steady at around 3,400 cases. These are Part 1 offenses under the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting program, meaning they capture the most serious categories of crime.
Property crime followed a mixed pattern. Burglaries actually declined modestly, continuing a slow downward trend that started around 2013. Motor vehicle theft, on the other hand, climbed sharply. The MPD auto theft unit worked more than 7,500 cases last year, many concentrated along the Interstate 240 loop and in neighborhoods south of Park Avenue.
For reference, the most recent complete FBI UCR data available covers 2015. Those national numbers showed Memphis ranking among the top five most violent large cities in the country. The 2016 preliminary local data suggests that ranking hasn’t improved.
Where the Violence Concentrates
Memphis crime isn’t distributed evenly, and anyone who’s spent time in the city knows this. The violence clusters in specific corridors and neighborhoods, and that geographic concentration shapes where security dollars flow.
The Frayser community in north Memphis has been one of the most heavily impacted areas for years. North Watkins Street, Thomas Street, the blocks around Frayser Boulevard: these ZIP codes consistently show up in MPD’s weekly CompStat reports. Residents there deal with gunfire the way residents of Germantown deal with traffic.
South Memphis and Whitehaven saw persistent violent crime throughout 2016, particularly along Elvis Presley Boulevard and in the neighborhoods between Shelby Drive and Brooks Road. The area around the Southland Mall site, which has been in decline for over a decade, remains a trouble spot.
Orange Mound, one of Memphis’s oldest African American neighborhoods east of Lamar Avenue, recorded high numbers of aggravated assaults relative to its population. Hickory Hill, the sprawling suburban-style area in southeast Memphis near Winchester Road and Ridgeway, continued its struggle with property crime and robberies targeting retail businesses.
Midtown Memphis and the medical district around Union Avenue represent an interesting case. Crime there is real and measurable, yet the density of hospitals, universities, and commercial businesses means security spending in those areas is also among the highest in the city. Baptist Memorial, Methodist Le Bonheur, and the University of Tennessee Health Science Center campus all maintain significant security operations.
How Memphis Compares to the Rest of Tennessee
Here’s where it gets uncomfortable for Memphis. Nashville, with a larger population in its consolidated metro government, recorded approximately 108 homicides in 2016. Memphis, with a city population roughly 100,000 smaller than Nashville’s metro, recorded more than double that count.
The comparison isn’t entirely fair. Nashville’s population includes suburban areas like Bellevue, Antioch, and Hermitage that are folded into the consolidated city-county government. Memphis city limits contain a more concentrated urban core. Still, even adjusting for methodology, the gap is significant.
Chattanooga’s violent crime rate runs well below Memphis but above the national average. Hamilton County reported around 30 homicides in 2016, concentrated heavily in certain South Chattanooga neighborhoods and along the Rossville Boulevard corridor. Knoxville’s numbers were lower still, with Knox County recording roughly 25 homicides for the year.
The state as a whole saw violent crime rise in 2016, consistent with a national trend that began accelerating around 2015. Tennessee Bureau of Investigation data, once fully compiled, will likely show the statewide violent crime rate climbing for the second consecutive year.
What This Means for Security Companies
Crime statistics aren’t just abstract numbers for the security industry. They’re demand signals.
When a warehouse manager on Airways Boulevard reads about rising auto theft numbers, that manager calls a security company. When the board of a Midtown condominium association sees another armed robbery in their neighborhood, they vote to hire overnight guards. When a hospital administrator reviews incident reports showing increased aggressive encounters in the ER waiting room, they expand their security contract.
This cause-and-effect relationship played out across Memphis in 2016, and it’s already continuing into early 2017.
Shelby County remains the number one county in Tennessee for armed guard registrations through TDCI. The latest available figures show more armed-registered security personnel in Shelby County than in Davidson, Hamilton, and Knox counties combined. That concentration tracks directly with the crime data.
The demand for armed guards specifically, not just unarmed security officers, reflects the nature of Memphis crime. When the threat environment includes firearms, property owners want guards who can respond in kind. That creates a premium market segment: armed patrol officers command higher billing rates, and the firms that can recruit, train, and retain them have significant pricing power.
Property Crime: The Overlooked Driver
Violent crime gets the headlines. Property crime drives much of the actual security spending.
Memphis businesses lost millions to burglary, theft, and vandalism in 2016. Retail centers along Poplar Avenue from East Memphis out to Germantown Parkway reported persistent shoplifting and smash-and-grab incidents. Auto parts stores and convenience stores in Raleigh and Frayser experienced repeated break-ins targeting cash registers and ATMs.
The warehouse and logistics sector around the Memphis International Airport, which handles more cargo than any airport in the Western Hemisphere thanks to FedEx, faces unique property crime challenges. Truck theft from loading docks, cargo pilferage, employee theft, and copper wire stripping from unoccupied facilities are all routine problems.
These aren’t dramatic crimes. They don’t make the evening news. They do, however, generate steady demand for security guards, video monitoring, and access control systems. A logistics company that loses $50,000 in stolen cargo over six months will happily pay $40,000 a year for a security guard to prevent the next loss.
The Insurance Connection
Rising crime doesn’t just affect security contracts directly. It works through insurance markets as well.
Commercial property insurance rates in Shelby County have been climbing. Insurers look at the same crime data security companies do, and they price accordingly. Higher premiums create an incentive for property owners to invest in security measures that might earn them insurance discounts. A building with 24/7 security patrol, camera systems, and controlled access can often negotiate lower premiums than an identical building with no security presence.
Several Memphis insurance brokers told me they’re now routinely recommending security service contracts as part of their risk management advice to commercial clients. Five years ago that conversation happened occasionally. Now it’s standard.
Looking at 2017 Through the Data
Nothing in the 2016 crime data suggests Memphis will see a dramatic improvement this year. MPD is working with roughly 2,000 sworn officers, a number that hasn’t kept pace with the city’s security needs. The department has been running recruitment campaigns, offering signing bonuses, trying to fill vacancies. It’s an uphill effort.
The Tennessee Highway Patrol occasionally supplements Memphis law enforcement during high-crime periods. Governor Haslam’s office has been receptive to those requests. Whether that continues, and at what scale, remains an open question as the state budget process unfolds this spring.
For security companies, the takeaway from 2016 is straightforward: Memphis needs them. The city’s crime numbers create a market that supports hundreds of armed and unarmed guard positions. The firms that can recruit reliable personnel, maintain proper TDCI registration for their guards, and deliver consistent service will find no shortage of work.
The firms that cut corners, that let guard registrations lapse, that skip training documentation, will eventually get caught by TDCI or by a client who runs a compliance audit. In a market this active, cutting corners is a choice to trade long-term viability for short-term margin.
The Broader Picture
Memphis’s crime problem is not a security industry problem to solve. Private guards don’t reduce crime rates. They protect specific properties, deter specific threats, and provide a visible presence that makes employees and customers feel safer. The macro crime numbers are shaped by policing strategy, economic conditions, drug markets, education, housing, and a dozen other factors that no security company controls.
What the security industry can do is respond to the reality those numbers describe. In 2016, that reality was a city where violent crime rose, property crime remained stubbornly high in certain categories, and businesses responded by spending more on protection.
In 2017, that reality hasn’t changed. The demand signal from Memphis is clear, and it’s loud.